Diesel hovering around a buck a liter is here to stay for
now. But how much higher will prices jump beyond that?

TORONTO — The myriad issues surrounding 2007 — from the introduction of smog-free engine technology, to new hours-of-service rules, to a recent downturn in freight volume — is making this year one of the thorniest in trucking’s history.

But what’s further over the horizon? Does the future look even more controversial for trucking, or will things eventually get simpler?

Peter Nesvold of renowned Wall Street transportation market analyst firm Bear Stearns recently outlined what he and his clients believe will be the trucking industry’s 10 most pressing issues over the next decade. Here they are, as editorialized by Today’s Trucking, in descending order:

10. Longer life cycles. Useful lives of components and vehicles will continue to improve. More rebuilds are moving from OEM control to secondary markets.

9. Global consolidation at all levels. Will larger OEMs try to squeeze prices from suppliers or will suppliers to big OEMs benefit from higher volumes?

8. Fuel costs and alternative power. What will the volatile market do to prices in years to come? Decreasing U.S. dependence on foreign oil and the emergence of alternative biofuels and market penetration of hybrid commercial trucks.

7. Vertical integration. International and Paccar are two truck makers that will have their own heavy-duty engines starting 2009. Volvo increased proprietary engine penetration from 10 percent in 1992 to 65 percent today and recently announced its own automated transmissions. What’s next?

Freight volume keeps growing while North American
highway capacity doesn’t budge. Something’s gotta’ give.

6. Vehicle idling creates demands for auxiliary power units, but are there alternatives for fleets that don’t want the added weight? How will the world of aerodynamics bring?

5. Global sourcing. International is seeking to buy $1 billion worth of components through its joint venture in India. Paccar just opened a purchasing office in China. Is this a threat or opportunity for suppliers? How will this impact the ability of the supply chain to bounce back when sales and manufacturing picks up in the latter half of this year and in 2008?

4. Safety. New stopping distance rules are in the works. Will the rule bring disc brakes to the forefront in North America and what will the impact be on brake and trailer manufacturers? (See this week’s feature at TodaysTrucking.com for more on this).

3. Driver and technician shortage. More freight, less drivers with each passing year. The math isn’t changing.

2. Diesel emissions. Jan. 1, 2007 is behind us, but regulations only go in one direction — they get stricter. Will 2010 bring SCR or yet another solution? And just what do politicians have in store beyond that? Perhaps all the carbon-based hysteria these days will extend to trucking.

1. Highway congestion. It’s not always the water cooler issue of the day, per se. But it’s always there in the background, heavily impacting everyday operations like fuel consumption, safety, and driver productivity. Will traffic volumes in dense areas and border crossings choke productivity in trucking?