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ShareLOS ANGELES – Despite a stronger performance in June, the U.S. freight economy is still in idle-mode, according to the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI).
The index, which measures fuel purchasing patterns to forecast economic conditions, rose 1 percent in June -- a rebound following declines in the previous two months, but still below its level at the end of the first quarter.
"Over the past year the U.S. economy has been in 'she loves me, she loves me not' mode," said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "Bad news has been alternating with good, leaving investors and forecasters nervous and unable to identify sustainable trends."
Over the last year, "GDP and payrolls have shown wobbly growth, failing to drive a real recovery or reduction in the unemployment rate," he added. "… a one month spike does not make a trend, particularly in light of the many false starts experienced over the last year."
The glimmerings of a recovery experienced during the second half of 2009 and the first half of 2010 were driven mostly by the replenishment of inventories, Learner said.
"When the inventory restocking was complete, neither new job creation nor consumer spending on big ticket items were robust enough to sustain a steady economic recovery."
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