TORONTO (Jan. 22) — Economic performances will deteriorate in most of Canada’s provinces this year, and job creation will slow from the rapid pace set in 1998, say TD Economists in the latest issue of TD Quarterly Economic Forecast.

“The Western provinces will be the hardest-hit in 1999, as their more resource-based economies continue to adjust to the slump in world commodity prices,’ said Teresa Courchene, director of economic research at TD Bank Financial Group. “In contrast, provinces that are less reliant on natural-resource production and resource-based manufacturing activity — especially those in Central Canada — are expected to post relatively faster economic growth and enjoy healthy declines in their unemployment rates in 1999.”

Among the provinces, economic performances will range from an increase in real GDP of 3.5% in Newfoundland to a decline of 0.5% in British Columbia in 1999, according to Courchene. Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba should post growth at or above the national average rate of 2% in 1999.

Although the large manufacturing sectors in these provinces are likely to feel the effects of slower growth in the U.S. economy this year, manufacturing exports will continue to be supported by the low Canadian dollar.

Newfoundland and Nova Scotia are predicted to post the fastest growth among the provinces in 1999, bolstered by large-scale oil and gas projects. The B.C. economy — now in recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in real GDP — will struggle due to weakness in the province’s key mining and forestry sectors. And the economies of Alberta and Saskatchewan will weaken further in 1999, again because of slowdowns in oil and agriculture.