Material costs, not sales, top concern for HD suppliers

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. — A significant majority of heavy-duty trucking industry suppliers are optimistic about growth in 2010, according to the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association‘s most recent Supplier Barometer.

In the second quarter survey, 84 percent of suppliers reported year-over-year sales growth, with over half experiencing a double-digit increase (40% indicated y-y growth of OEM trailer sales of over 10 percent).

Additionally, about 40 percent of respondents have seen growth of over 10 percent in OES customer sales and independent aftermarket sales.

Impressively, nearly 30 percent said they’ve seen "substantial" growth in sales, compared to only1 percent who said the same thing in the first quarter. Almost 65 percent indicated modest growth in sales.

While weak sales have been the top concern for suppliers for the past six quarters, this quarter it ranked last. Top concerns are now raw material availability and cost, customer forecast accuracy and demand volatility.

Healthcare costs also made the list.

Over the last month, almost 65 percent said their outlook has become somewhat more optimistic, while a quarter said they’ve become significantly more optimistic.

While the majority of suppliers, 60 percent, reported no change in prices during the past three months, about one-fourth said they’ve increased prices modestly. For the first time in four quarters, a few suppliers said they’ve increased prices substantially, at about 3 percent.

Both Hiring activity and production also picked up. Nearly 80 percent of suppliers are doing modest hiring, up from about 56 percent in the first quarter; and while suppliers were mostly not changing production capacity in the previous three quarters, about 60 percent said this time that production was increasing modestly. About 10 percent reported a substantial increase.

Over 40 percent of suppliers said the turnaround in North American class 8 truck builds would take off in fourth quarter of 2010, while 20 percent said it would happen in the first quarter of 2011. 


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