The crackspread -- the difference between the rack-wholesale price and the price of crude (and where oil companies' profit margins lie) -- is at all time high, explains Rosnak. "So do they get on the bandwagon and build a refinery or do they say to themselves 'what happens if there are too many refineries? We're enjoying a crackspread we haven't seen before.'"
Although much of the media blamed the Nanticoke blaze for the shortage, that incident only punctuated a series of events that slowly pinched supply over the last year. It began with a fire at Petro-Canada's Oakville, Ont. plant in early 2006, followed by a fire at Shell's Sarnia refinery in December.
Capacity was already tight when the St. Lawrence Seaway closed for the winter. Then CN Rail was crippled by a strike.
Rosnak thinks truckers would be better served by laws similar to those in the U.S., which require immediate reports from suppliers if there's a problem with refining and pipeline capacity or distribution.
A government watchdog organization like the Energy Information Administration, which monitors inventory levels in various regions, might also be in order.
"There's no such thing in Canada," he says. "It would give us a head's up if there's a potential supply issue coming down."
Whether it's additional refineries, petroleum stockpiles, or better contingency plans, Bradley says the problem needs fixing now. If anything, the recent disruption should have convinced decision-makers that the petroleum supply needs to be treated as a national security issue.
"With all the backroom planning that's been going on since 9-11, here's a isolated test and we failed miserably," he says. "One really worries what would happen in this country were we faced with an (even bigger) national crisis."