No “W’-shaped recovery: trade researcher

WASHINGTON — Trade watcher Ben Hackett, founder of the research firm Hackett Associates, says an analysis of import cargo volumes at major retail container ports in the U.S. shows that recovery is definitely underway, and fears of a W-shaped recovery are unlikely.

His latest “Global Port Tracker” study forecasts an increase in import cargo volumes of 25 percent during the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year ago.

The report released, commissioned by the National Retail Federation, saw import volumes in January of 1.19 million TEU.

February is forecast at 1.1 million TEU, March is forecast at 1.18 million TEU, April is forecast at 1.25 million TEU, May at 1.3 million TEU, and June at 1.38 million TEU.

Those monthly numbers would put the first half of 2010 at 7.4 million TEU, up 25 percent from last year’s 5.9 million TEU.

"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," Hackett said in a release. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."

“This is a dramatic turnaround over what we’ve seen during the past two years,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold.

“Increases in import volumes don’t correspond directly with dollar volumes in sales, so caution has to be exercised when looking at these numbers. But retailers are clearly expecting to move more merchandise this year."

U.S. ports handled 1.09 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6 percent from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals were lower than the same month the year before.

One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

With numbers from December now final, 2009 ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEU, down 17 percent from 2008’s 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003. 


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