COLUMBUS, IN and BLOOMINGTON, IN —  Newly released preliminary numbers show there were 40,700 North American orders for Class 5-8 trucks booked in September, according to the commercial vehicle industry data provider ACT Research.

The level is up 7 percent from August but down 8 percent compared to September 2014. Actual numbers will be published in mid-October.

“The year-over-year decline marked the sixth consecutive negative reading for Classes 5-8 orders,” said Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “While we continue to believe that much of the order decline is a reflection of larger backlogs and tough comps, rather than any substantive change in demand, this has become a less compelling piece of evidence, as the spread in the year-over-year backlog has continued to narrow.”

ACT Research also reports North American Class 8 truck orders last month were down 3 percent from August and 21 percent below last September.

“Because orders are typically soft in September, seasonal adjustment provides a healthy boost, raising the month’s seasonally adjusted order total to 23,100 units,” said Vieth. “For the month, North America medium-duty Classes 5-7 vehicle net orders rebounded to 21,100 units, up 18 percent from August and 8 percent from year-ago September. Seasonal adjustment reduced September’s net order volume to 20,500 units.”

Meantime, a separate report from the freight transportation forecasting firm FTR paints a slightly different picture with preliminary data showing September 2015 North American Class 8 truck net orders at 19,460 units, 0.4 percent below August.  

The September order activity met expectations albeit with a higher anticipated cancellation rate for the second month in a row, according to the group. Base Class 8 order activity has been consistent for the past five months. September 2015 follows the trend of previous months with a decline of 21 percent.  However with heavy ordering early in the period, the past twelve months continue to annualize at a solid rate, now at 345,000 units. 

“After the wild order activity that started last October, the market has fallen back to a remarkable level of consistency. To have five months of orders be this stable in a stronger market is likely unprecedented,” said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles.

He said fleets loaded their orders into the backlog by March and OEMs have just been filling in the remaining slots since then.

“We don’t see the increased cancellation rate the past two months as being a cause for concern,” Ake said. “The orders that were cancelled were placed seven months or more prior to this, to hold production slots. While the market is softening some with fleets now deciding they do not need these trucks, total backlogs remain strong.”