Is Canada in an economic recession?  That all depends on how you define the term. And even if the answer is yes, will it slow down the trucking industry?

According to most economists, a recession is when there are at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the country’s gross domestic product, which is a measure of the total output of goods and services.  Canada’s GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2015, according to government numbers, following 0.6% growth in the final quarter of 2014.

A report released at the end of June showed a 0.1% drop for the month of April, meaning our economy shrank for the fourth straight month.

Not a full second quarter, but not a good trend.

Another definition says a recession can be triggered by a major loss in the stock market, consumers putting up their wallets, or the sudden loss of jobs and/or business in a major sector of the economy.

Job losses and investment cutbacks in the oil patch have been sharp and much of the country’s mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction business have seen six months of declines.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Finance Minister Joe Oliver said Tuesday he is taking a wait-and-see attitude, with the next round of GDP figures due out at the end of the month. Ironically, CTV News reported just a few days earlier that Oliver rejected the idea Canada was in a recession.

On top of that, TD Bank this week said Canada likely is in a recession. One of its analysts claimed many people have “underestimated the impact of the sharp decline in oil prices on the Canadian economy.”

The Canadian trade deficit grew in May far wider than many economists were expecting and if misery loves company, we have lots.

The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of just 0.2% in the first quarter of the year (second-quarter figures have yet to be released), and there are worries about Greece’s inability to pay its bills and exiting the European Union. Plus, there has a sharp slide this week in China’s stock market. All this is making some watchers nervous about the possibility of a worldwide economic recession. (China’s slowing economy has already thrown a wrench into the B.C. lumber business.)   

That said, while Canadians await the next quarter results, truckers remain optimistic, at least according to a study done by GE Capital and released late last month.

According to the Ontario Trucking Association (OTA), most of the trucking executives surveyed plan to add more new equipment in the coming year than they did in the previous 12 months. 

“The survey,” the OTA reported, “conducted with middle-market trucking company executives, also found a greater sense of optimism in the trucking industry about the general economy and the freight market. It also revealed key challenges facing the industry, including retaining employees and new regulations.”

“More than half of the firms surveyed expect to add jobs with employment in the sector projected to grow by an average of 5.4% year-over-year. Half of the business leaders also believe the industry will expand in the coming year.”