Truckloads flattish, but pricing holds up: Jefferies

NEW YORK — While tonnage captures many headlines, loads are a better indicator of volumes for truckload carriers; and growth for the larger truckload fleets has been decelerating, says Peter Nesvold, a managing director of prominent investment firm, Jefferies.

"Our work has found that TL loads typically peak out earlier than tonnage as the cycle matures. We have been forecasting flattish loads for 2011 … Weakness appears to be most prevalent in the dry van segment, particularly for hauls of 500 miles and less," Nesvold states in a recent report on 2010 year-end freight trends.

However, despite a slowdown, Nesvold reports that he continues to be impressed with truckload pricing as revenue per mile improved 5.5 percent year-over-year in December.

"We continue to believe that volume leads price and that sustained pricing gains will, to a large extent, hinge upon a reacceleration in TL loads — and not just supply-side capacity rationalization."

The firm expects full-year yield forecast of between 1 and 3 percent.

Meanwhile, flatbed offers the strongest combination of loads and pricing improving 3.1 percent and 8.4 percent respectively, in December.

Reefer pricing also remains strong (+7.5%), despite muted volumes, according to the report.


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