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US truck freight tonnage hits wall; but pricing holds firm

WASHINGTON -- The American Trucking Associations' advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index dropped 1.3 percent in July after rising 2.6 percent in June.

"We had heard that freight weakened from a robust June, that that was true," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, adding that tonnage has fallen in three of the last four months on a sequential basis.

"Despite a solid June, our truck tonnage index fits with an economy that is growing very slowly," Costello noted. "The good news is that tonnage continues to increase on a year-over-year basis, but it is likely that the rate of growth will moderate in the second half of the year."

Jefferies & Co. analyst Peter Nesvold, who often expands on the ATA tonnage reports for investors, said he remains impressed with the continued strength of in truckload pricing despite the recent deceleration in load growth.

Revenue per mile, net of fuel, was up 5.9 percent YoY in June says Nesvold. Dry van is particular sanguine at 8.5 percent more than June 2010.

However, short-haul (less than 500 miles) pricing remains weak, down 5.4 percent.

"We continue to believe that volume leads price and that sustained pricing gains will, to a large extent, hinge upon a reacceleration in TL loads -- and not just supply-side capacity rationalization."

Meanwhile, LTL tonnage and pricing also posted solid gains in June, jumping 17.5 percent from 2010 -- its sixth consecutive double-digit YoY gain. Meanwhile, LTL pricing (revenue per ton) increased for the eleventh consecutive month, rising 8.7 percent.

"We expect the solid pricing growth in the LTL sector to continue, driven by improving demand trends and more rational pricing environments." 

 
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